If you read my article on the Nuggets-Lakers bet with my brother, then you probably know that I am a Michael Porter Jr. fan. My side of the bet was entirely predicated on the basis that MPJ plays at least 55 games this season to prove not only his health but his fit and chemistry within the team. Any player that is 6’10” and can move like a guard will grab my attention. Although he did not play during what would have been his rookie season, I still saw him as an absolute steal for the Denver Nuggets in the 2018 NBA draft. A guy with that size and mobility with a pure stroke and a superior offensive feel for the game will make any team better. Since the NBA restart in the Orlando bubble, Denver has been trying to make due without their guard trio of Jamal Murray, Will Barton, and Gary Harris. This has catapulted Porter Jr. into the starting lineup where he is playing majority of his minutes at the small forward position, and he is taking full advantage of his opportunity on the offensive end while leaving quite a bit to be desired on defense.
MPJ has been playing limited minutes for most of the year, primarily due to his health but also due to his lack of experience. He is dripping with offensive potential but remains a liability on the other end of the floor. While averaging 16.1 minutes a game, Porter Jr. has averaged 9.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, but less than one assist. These numbers are impressive, but they garner even more interest when looking at his efficiency. Porter Jr.’s shooting splits for the season are 50.4% FG, 42.1% from three, and 83.8% from the charity stripe. A coach’s dream is for those numbers to hold steady when a player’s minutes are increased, but that’s rather unlikely. However, five games into the Orlando bubble, MPJ’s efficiency has held steady while his production has increased. Through the five games, MPJ has averaged 25.6 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 1.6 assists with shooting splits of 53.7% FG, 42.2% 3P, and 96% FT. Those numbers will fall over time as more teams scout Porter and cater their defensive strategy toward him.
His confidence is through the roof and you can tell by the ease in which he just lets the ball fly when he is open. He‘s not getting yanked off the floor immediately after making a mistake because Denver doesn’t have their starting guards available right now. By playing through his mistakes, Porter Jr. is learning and adapting to the game. He’s not completely infallible because he still gets subbed out when he is letting up too many baskets on the defensive end due to a missed rotation or if the opposing team is trying to switch him onto a smaller quicker guard where he has no chance one-on-one.
I witnessed these defensive deficiencies against the Utah Jazz. Utah head coach Quin Snyder frequently set screens for Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley so Porter Jr. had to guard them straight up and both guards cooked him or drew a foul. These were bad matchups for MPJ, but not because he was too slow. He’s just not a very good on-ball defender. Porter Jr. doesn’t have his hands up on D, and he gets caught on his heels far too often, which leads to guards blowing by him. Look at Ben Simmons play defense. Simmons is of comparable size and athleticism to Porter Jr., but Simmons is a menace defensively because he is always on his toes, has active hands, and he is able to read his matchups waist and hips to predict where he is going. It is more of a mental hurdle for Porter Jr. to overcome. He needs to learn how to get in a proper stance and bully guards into mistakes like a Ben Simmons or a Paul George.
Unfortunately, this is not the only problem for MPJ on defense since he misses rotations frequently. Rudy Gobert is not exactly and offensive post threat by himself. He is not going to go to work on the block against a serviceable post defender. Gobert thrives on the pick and roll and using his momentum to catch a pass or lob while running to the basket. MPJ, for some reason, did not want anything to do with Gobert as he failed to pick up Gobert on a roll or slip allowing the Stifle Tower to run freely down the middle of the lane for easy buckets. If he wants to stay in games during crunch time, MPJ is going to have to learn to rotate toward the open man and put a body on him. He has to take full advantage of his 6’10” 220 lb frame on defense just like he does on offense. Porter Jr. had some issues rotating on the perimeter but he fixed those as the game went on.
Finally, Michael Porter Jr. does have some improvements to make on offense if he wants to become a serious threat to the rest of the NBA. First, he has to get a reliable handle. He is very smart with the ball on the offensive end because he knows his limitations. You don’t see him creating his own shot because he doesn’t have a good enough handle to make enough space to get a jumper off. Also, he must become a better distributor. He doesn’t have to become the next Lebron, but he has to be able to hit guys cutting through the lane or passing through the gaps to compromise a zone defense. The timing of his passes could be better as well. One of the easiest (and deadliest) passes a driver can make is the kick out pass to the corner for the open three. Porter was late multiple times making that pass against the Jazz which messes up the rhythm for the shooters.
Michael Porter Jr. is only 22 and he is technically a rookie so he‘s got a lot of time to improve his game. The Nuggets clearly want him to be their starting small forward of the future, but he will probably have to play more power forward initially due to matchup problems and his relative lack of ball handling skills compared to other small forwards around the league. Despite this, you have to play him purely for his overall offensive efficiency and finishing skills.
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